The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecasts, projecting a historic oil glut in 2026, with an oversupply of more than 3 million barrels per day. The expected imbalance comes as global demand growth weakens, especially in China and developed economies, while OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers steadily ramp up output.
Brent crude prices slipped below $66/bbl as concerns over excess supply outweighed geopolitical risks, including renewed Western sanctions on Russian exports and rising tensions in the Middle East.
According to the IEA, global oil demand will rise by only 740,000 b/d this year and about 700,000 b/d in 2026, while supply could grow by 2.7m b/d in 2025 and another 2.1m b/d in 2026. OPEC, meanwhile, kept its projections unchanged, expecting demand growth of 1.3m b/d in 2025 and 1.4m b/d in 2026, continuing to forecast a supply deficit.
Elsewhere in commodities, nickel prices surged after Indonesia seized part of a Tsingshan Holding mine, raising supply concerns, while Brazil’s CONAB boosted its grain production outlook, projecting record soybean and corn harvests thanks to favorable weather.
