Disclaimer: This is a summarized interpretation of Arthur Hayes’ original essay. The views expressed belong to the author of the source material and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Incrypted.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, has published a new essay titled “Four, Seven.” In it, he explores how a potential Donald Trump administration could reshape U.S. monetary policy — and what this might mean for Bitcoin.
Hayes suggests that the White House could attempt to gain direct influence over the Federal Reserve to accelerate dollar issuance, aimed at supporting U.S. industry and small businesses. He draws parallels to World War II, when the Treasury managed to subordinate the Fed to finance the war effort from 1942 to 1951.
According to Hayes, if the Fed submits to such a policy, regulators and banks could generate more than $15 trillion in liquidity, fueling markets. Based on his calculations, this could push Bitcoin to $3.4 million by 2028 — though he admits this projection is unlikely to fully materialize.
Yield Curve Control and “Reindustrialization”
The essay highlights Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s plan to implement yield curve control (YCC) — fixing rates for short- and long-term government bonds to make lending attractive for regional banks. During the 1940s, short-term yields were capped at 0.675% while long-term bonds stayed at 2.5%. Hayes argues a similar strategy today could redirect credit from Wall Street back to small and medium-sized businesses — the backbone of the U.S. economy.
However, for this to happen, Trump would need loyal appointees inside the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (FBOG) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). With control over these bodies, the administration could cap short-term rates, relax regulations for local banks, and expand Fed balance sheet operations to absorb unlimited government debt issuance.
Political Battle Inside the Fed
Hayes describes how Trump might gain control: by securing four out of seven seats in the Board of Governors and reshaping FOMC voting through upcoming regional Fed appointments in 2026. If successful, this would enable a new “Treasury-Fed Accord” — granting the White House effective control over money printing and yield curve policy.
The Bigger Picture: Bitcoin as the Winner
The essay concludes that such policies would weaken the dollar, support U.S. exports, and drive massive liquidity into the economy. Hayes estimates that between Treasury issuance and bank lending, over $15 trillion could be created in just a few years.
If Bitcoin reacts to new credit creation as it did during COVID-19 stimulus — rising roughly $0.19 for every new dollar — then Hayes’ model points to a potential price of $3.4 million per BTC by 2028.
Still, he tempers expectations, saying the real point is not the exact figure, but the direction: if Trump pursues aggressive money printing, Bitcoin is likely to surge far beyond today’s $115,000.
