Fitch Solutions’ BMI has lifted its average copper price forecast for 2025 to $9,650 per tonne (up from $9,500), citing persistent supply disruptions and resilient industrial demand that have pushed spot prices above $10,000/tonne. For crypto and blockchain readers, the metals story matters: copper underpins the buildout of data centers, AI farms and mining rigs — all heavy consumers of copper-intensive hardware and power infrastructure.
Why BMI raised the call
BMI notes that, despite a 2025 year-to-date average near $9,609/tonne, a mix of macro drivers has pushed prices higher. Anticipated U.S. rate cuts should boost manufacturing and investment into 2026, while continued green-energy and EV deployment sustain demand. China remains the dominant force: BMI expects 4.8% GDP growth in 2025 and points to booming renewables and EV adoption — including a 212 GW increase in solar capacity in H1 2025 and 33% growth in EV sales to 5.4 million units — as major copper consumers.
Inventories and physical tightness
Physical stocks reflect the supply strain. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories plunged from 160,800 tonnes in March to roughly 26,800 tonnes by end-September. LME stocks have roughly halved during 2025 to near 140,000 tonnes, as shipments were front-loaded into the U.S. ahead of potential tariffs; COMEX inventories sit around 329,900 tonnes. These low visible inventories amplify price sensitivity to any further disruption.
Supply shocks underpinning the rally
BMI flags several major supply hits. A September mud-flow at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg triggered a force majeure and slashed projected 2026 output by about 35%. Chilean production also fell sharply: Codelco reported a 25% year-on-year drop in August to 93,400 tonnes, while Collahuasi’s output fell 27% and multiple miners (including Teck at Quebrada Blanca) trimmed 2025 guidance. BMI still expects refined output to rise ~2.4% in 2025 — but growth is constrained by concentrate shortages.
What this means for crypto and mining
Copper’s role extends beyond industrial headlines. Each data center rack, GPU chassis and power distribution network uses substantial copper. As AI and crypto infrastructure expand, higher copper prices raise capex for mining farms and GPU-heavy operations, and they can increase marginal energy-delivery costs for on-site electrification projects (including renewables paired with miners). At the same time, higher hardware costs can tighten supply of ASICs and GPUs, influencing mining economics and secondary markets for used rigs.
Long view: demand outpaces new supply
BMI sees a long lead time for new projects to fully offset deficits. Quoting IEA figures, the firm notes each BEV contains >50 kg of copper and offshore wind uses multiple tonnes per MW — inputs that stack up fast. BMI projects copper could reach $17,000/tonne by 2034 if electrification and renewables continue to outstrip mine additions.
