According to the latest data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has now entered the late stage of its bull cycle, signaling a shift toward heightened market optimism — and potentially, the first signs of euphoria.
NUPL Points to the Euphoria Zone
The firm’s on-chain analysts highlight that Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) currently stands at +0.52, a level historically associated with the transition between optimism and euphoria.
In previous market cycles — notably 2017 and 2021 — readings above 0.5 indicated that most investors were already in profit, often leading to intensified speculative activity.
CryptoQuant analysts also report that around 97% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now in profit. While this reflects strong market confidence, it also suggests that upside potential may be limited unless consolidation occurs.
Short-Term Holders Take the Lead
Another key metric tracked by CryptoQuant is the share of realized capitalization held by short-term holders (STH). Currently, this group controls 44% of Bitcoin’s realized market cap — the highest level in history.
This shift implies that long-term holders (LTH) are taking profits, while a new wave of short-term traders and fresh market entrants are increasingly dominating the landscape.
In previous cycles, such structural changes in ownership often aligned with market tops, the analysts note. However, the current environment differs in one important aspect.
Why This Cycle May Be Different
CryptoQuant emphasizes that growing stablecoin liquidity, institutional capital inflows, and steady demand from Bitcoin ETFs are helping to offset selling pressure that typically emerges in late bull phases.
“The market is now in a mature speculative stage supported by external liquidity flows,” the report states. “A transition to the next phase may occur once short-term players’ influence declines, signaling the return of long-term investors and the start of a new accumulation period.”
Broader Market Context
The report echoes earlier commentary from Citigroup, which recently noted Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional equity markets. Despite cyclical similarities, the presence of new institutional vehicles and liquidity mechanisms could make this bull cycle structurally distinct from previous ones.
