Tom Lee, CEO of BitMine, shared his outlook on Bitcoin, cautioning that the cryptocurrency could experience a 50% decline despite the current boom in ETFs. According to Lee, the crypto market cycle has lengthened, moving beyond its traditional four-year pattern.
Despite significant institutional interest and the launch of spot ETFs, Bitcoin’s volatility remains high. Lee emphasized that a price drop of up to 50% is still possible.
“I’m confident we could see a 50% correction,” Lee stated during an interview with crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano.
Addressing claims of a “mature” crypto market, Lee noted that Bitcoin continues to amplify stock market fluctuations. “The stock market typically sees a 25% correction. If the S&P 500 drops by 20%, Bitcoin could fall by 40%,” he explained.
Lee also observed that the classic four-year cycle, which would have peaked this October, no longer applies. “A longer cycle is forming,” he said.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and investment director at Maelstrom, shares this perspective, predicting Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of the decade. On the Bankless podcast, Lee reaffirmed his forecast of $200,000–$250,000 by year-end. Even a 50% correction from that range would bring Bitcoin to roughly $125,000, close to its current all-time high.
Trader Peter Brandt also highlighted the risk of a 50% decline, comparing Bitcoin’s chart to the 1970s soybean market before a sharp crash. Historical precedents support this concern: in November 2021, Bitcoin hit $69,000 before dropping by half to about $35,000 in January 2022.
Meanwhile, Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor recently declared that “crypto winters are over,” describing Bitcoin as a cornerstone of the emerging global financial system.
