Crypto exchange Gemini is preparing to enter the prediction market, according to a report by Bloomberg citing sources familiar with the company’s strategy.
The platform reportedly plans to allow users to trade contracts tied to real-world events, including sports outcomes, political elections, and other major occurrences. These contracts would effectively let traders speculate on the probability of various future events, similar to how derivatives are used in traditional finance.
CFTC Application Filed
In May 2025, Gemini submitted an application to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to establish a new derivatives exchange. Insiders claim this venue could serve as the base for event-driven contracts once regulatory approval is obtained.
However, approval from the CFTC could take months or even years, as the process is subject to review delays and potential government shutdown interruptions.
Analysts View the Move as Strategic Diversification
Analysts at Needham & Company suggest that this initiative may help Gemini diversify beyond its core crypto exchange business, expanding into a new category of alternative financial instruments.
Still, the regulatory landscape for prediction markets in the United States remains ambiguous. While such platforms have existed for years in niche or offshore markets, large-scale adoption has been limited by compliance hurdles.
A Rapidly Growing Industry
According to previous Bloomberg research, the global prediction market sector could exceed $11 billion, driven by renewed investor interest and advancements in blockchain-based forecasting systems.
Gemini’s move mirrors a growing trend among major exchanges seeking to innovate amid market saturation and volatile trading volumes.
Meanwhile, Polymarket, one of the leading decentralized prediction platforms, is also awaiting CFTC approval to operate legally in the U.S. market — signaling that the race to dominate this emerging sector is already underway.
