Bitcoin’s fair value could reach $170,000, according to a new JPMorgan report comparing the asset to gold while adjusting for volatility. Analysts believe the cryptocurrency is currently trading below its justified price.
JPMorgan strategists point to gold’s surge to record highs in October, which made the precious metal a riskier investment and increased Bitcoin’s relative appeal.
The volatility ratio between Bitcoin and gold has now fallen to 1.8, meaning BTC is only 1.8 times more volatile than gold.
“Given this parameter, Bitcoin’s market capitalization of $2.1 trillion should rise by nearly 67%, implying a theoretical price of around $170,000. This calculation suggests a substantial price increase over the next 6–12 months,” the report stated.
(Chart: Bitcoin’s deviation from fair value. Source: JPMorgan)
Analysts Lower Year-End Expectations
The optimistic forecast from JPMorgan contrasts with a broader cooling of expectations among market analysts following Bitcoin’s drop below the $100,000 mark.
Galaxy Digital recently revised its year-end 2025 forecast from $185,000 down to $120,000, citing “whale distribution,” capital rotation into competing narratives, and evolving market dynamics.
“Bitcoin has entered what we call the ‘Era of Maturity’, dominated by institutional accumulation, passive inflows, and lower volatility,” said Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital.
He added that the growing presence of Bitcoin ETFs means price appreciation will likely occur at a slower, steadier pace than in previous cycles.
(Chart: BTC/USD daily performance. Source: TradingView)
JPMorgan’s $170K target implies a renewed wave of institutional confidence in Bitcoin, even as other analysts turn cautious. With volatility declining and mainstream adoption rising, the next 12 months could test whether Bitcoin truly earns its “digital gold” reputation.
