OpenAI is staring at a significant financial challenge over the next decade. HSBC analysts estimate that the AI pioneer will need to raise at least $207 billion by 2030 to maintain operations amid soaring expenses and ongoing losses. The figures highlight the intense capital requirements for a company betting heavily on AI infrastructure and ambitious expansion.
The bank updated its model following OpenAI’s recent decade-long cloud deals: $250 billion with Microsoft and $38 billion with Amazon, covering a total capacity of up to 36 GW. These contracts represent minimum infrastructure commitments; if OpenAI fully utilizes the agreed capacity, total obligations could reach $1.8 trillion.
HSBC notes that annual data center rental payments could hit $620 billion, assuming the company operates at just one-third of contracted capacity by the end of the decade.
To assess OpenAI’s revenue sustainability, analysts projected the user base to reach 3 billion by 2030, nearly half of the global adult population excluding China. They assume 10% of users convert to paid subscriptions and OpenAI captures 2% of the global digital advertising market.
Even under this optimistic scenario, the revenue shortfall remains severe. Free cash flow is expected to total around $282 billion through 2030. Additional sources, such as Nvidia deals and partial sales of AMD holdings, may add another $50 billion, still covering less than half of the cloud infrastructure obligations.
HSBC emphasizes that the model does not account for costs related to developing Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The bank also noted that renegotiating some data center leases remains a possible strategy if the situation worsens, suggesting that underutilized infrastructure is preferable to a liquidity crisis.
Despite these enormous expenditures, HSBC remains bullish on AI’s long-term economic impact. Broad adoption of AI technologies could contribute measurable boosts to global GDP, potentially offsetting current capital outlays. Analysts even predict that the S&P 500 could rise 20% by the end of 2026 as AI adoption accelerates.
Recent developments, such as Nvidia’s record $57 billion Q3 2025 revenue, underscore the massive market and investment momentum surrounding AI infrastructure.
