Analysts are predicting a potential “Santa Rally” for Bitcoin in December, fueled by expectations of fresh U.S. economic stimulus and adjustments in Federal Reserve policy. The traditional end-of-year surge could be bolstered by strategic accumulation from long-term investors and optimism surrounding softer monetary measures.
According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin has closed higher in five of the past ten Decembers, with returns ranging between 12% and 47%. This seasonal trend, often referred to as the “Santa Rally,” typically occurs when investors display heightened optimism while holiday-period liquidity remains relatively low, amplifying price swings.
“We are observing a shift from panic-driven sell-offs to strategic accumulation by long-term holders. This recovery trajectory, reinforced by expected Fed rate cuts and increasing institutional adoption, sets the stage for a strong year-end rally,” said Nick Rak, Director at LVRG Research, in a Telegram comment.
One factor potentially supporting this upward momentum is U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to distribute $2,000 per citizen as a “tariff dividend,” alongside the introduction of 50-year mortgages to improve housing affordability.
“President Trump has outlined a new stimulus in the form of a $2,000 tariff dividend directly to Americans, as well as extended mortgage options to enhance housing access,” noted Augustin Fan, Head of Analytics at SignalPlus.
Fan added:
“These tariff dividends are reminiscent of the COVID-era stimulus, essentially functioning as direct liquidity injections. At the same time, ultra-long mortgages increase leverage in the system. Both measures should be viewed as liquidity easing, and the market is already reacting accordingly.”
Experts believe these steps could inject additional liquidity into the financial system and positively impact risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
While Bitcoin’s volatility is expected to remain high in 2026, analysts stress that it will be driven by structural shifts in global liquidity, institutional flows, and derivatives markets, rather than retail speculation.
“Bitcoin’s volatility in 2026 will likely remain elevated, but for different reasons than in previous cycles. We are witnessing an evolution—it is no longer about speculative frenzy, but rather the interplay of institutional flows, liquidity, and derivatives positioning in a tighter financial environment,” explained Rachel Lin, CEO and Co-founder of SynFutures.
She further noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. liquidity remains at 0.6–0.7, meaning any pause or rollback in central bank easing could quickly influence price movements.
In October, Bitcoin declined by 3.7%, breaking the “Uptober” trend for the first time since 2018, primarily due to the market crash between October 10–11.
CryptoQuant reported that long-term holders sold approximately 405,000 BTC in October, while addresses actively accumulating Bitcoin purchased 50,000 BTC in a single day on November 5.
If historical seasonal patterns hold and Trump’s tariff dividend materializes as a new liquidity source, December could once again become a period of festive optimism for the crypto market—transforming skepticism into pre-cycle euphoria.
As of early November, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100,000 but is currently trading around $103,070, according to TradingView.
