Large holders are offloading BTC while retail investors keep buying the dip — a pattern that historically signals market weakness.
Blockchain analytics firm Santiment has flagged a concerning divergence in Bitcoin market behavior. Since October 12, whale wallets have sold more than 32,500 BTC, while smaller investors have continued to accumulate. According to analysts, this split is often a bearish indicator.
“Historically, prices tend to follow the whales rather than retail traders,” Santiment noted in its latest report.
Further adding to the pressure, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, pointed out a spike in selling activity from long-term Bitcoin holders — wallets dormant for more than seven years. This trend of profit-taking by early adopters has been a defining feature of the current cycle, confirmed on-chain data provider Glassnode.
Glassnode highlighted multiple instances in 2025 where “OG” whale addresses moved over 1,000 BTC per hour, a signal of persistent distribution across the year.
“Unlike previous cycles, large-scale spending events by old whale wallets have become far more frequent, indicating ongoing profit realization,” Glassnode analysts wrote on X.
After briefly dropping below $100,000 on Friday, Bitcoin rebounded to around $103,700, and is currently holding above $102,000 (CoinGecko data).
Analysts at Bitfinex expect the market to enter a short-term consolidation phase, with volatility likely to persist. They see no immediate breakout toward new highs.
“The early-October inflows into Bitcoin ETFs pushed the price toward $125,000,” Bitfinex noted. “However, mid-month macro shocks, expiring options, and profit-taking quickly dragged it back toward $100,000.”
According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $240 million in inflows on November 6 after six consecutive days of outflows — only to see $558 million withdrawn the very next day.
Bitfinex analysts estimate that sustained weekly inflows of around $1 billion into BTC ETFs, combined with improved macroeconomic conditions, could help the leading cryptocurrency retest the $130,000 level.
Meanwhile, Jake Kennys, senior analyst at Nansen, remains cautious:
“Despite Bitcoin’s usual end-of-year strength, the recent liquidations and market structure breakdown make a strong rebound less likely in the near term,” he said.
Still, if sentiment shifts decisively, experts believe new all-time highs could emerge before the end of 2025.
Earlier this week, JPMorgan projected that Bitcoin could climb as high as $170,000 within the next 6–12 months as leverage normalizes and volatility stabilizes relative to gold.
